THE BRAZILIAN TRADE BALANCE FOUR MONTHS AFTER TRUMP’S TARIFFS
Spring 2025 - Sergio Goldbaum
Did Trump’s tariffs affect Brazilian trade flows with the US and China, four months after the inauguration? Specifically, is China deflecting its exports from the US to Brazil? Is the US diverting imports from China to Brazil? In other words, is Brazil importing more from China and exporting more to the US?
Chart 1 below presents Brazilian trade indicators for the US and China for the first four months 2020-2025, expressed in US dollars million. The first set of columns indicates that Brazilian exports to China decreased from US$32.4 billion in 2024 to US$28.5 billion in 2025. The second set of columns shows that Brazilian imports from China increased significantly from US$18.8 billion in 2024 to US$24.1 billion in 2025. As a result, the third set of columns shows that the Brazilian trade surplus with China decreased from US$ 13.6 billion in 2024 to US$ 4.4 billion in 2025.
Chart 1: Brazilian trade indicators for the US and China, Jan-Apr, 2020-2025.
Source: Based on Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade data (ComexStat)
The last three sets of columns present Brazilian trade indicators for the US. It shows a slight increase in Brazilian exports to the US from 2024 (US$12.7 billion) to 2025 (US$13.1 billion). It also shows a larger increase in Brazilian imports from the US from 2024 to 2025, resulting in a small trade deficit in the first four months of 2025.
However, the detailed trade data analysis does not allow us to conclude on trade deflection and trade diversion. Table 1 shows the 10 main HS2 chapters of Brazilian imports from China in 2024 and 2025, in US$ thousand. It reveals that the increase in Brazilian imports from China comes from an unusual rise in imports of Chapter 89 – Ships, boats, and floating structures.
Table 1: Brazilian Imports from China, Jan-Apr, 2024-2025, by Main HS2 Chapters (US$ thousands).
Source: Based on Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade data (ComexStat)
Table 2, in turn, presents a detailed analysis of the 10 main HS2 chapters of Brazilian exports to the US, in US$ thousands. The most significant increase was in Chapter 2 - Meat and Edible Meat, etc, and Chapter 20 – Preparations of Vegetables, etc. Neither of them faces competition from Chinese exports to the US. Outside the table, the Brazilian exports of Chapter 28 – Inorganic Chemicals to the US increased by 55%, from US$ 247 million to US$ 384 million, which may be related to trade diversion.
Table 2: Brazilian Exports to the US, Jan-Apr, 2024-2025, by Main HS2 Chapters (US$ thousands).
Source: Based on Brazilian Ministry of Industry and Trade data (ComexStat)
In sum, Brazilian trade statistics have not been significantly influenced by Trump’s tariffs so far. However, a definite conclusion on the matter requires a deeper analysis of each industry and a longer analysis period.